Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Occupy Wall road and The Fallacy Of Their Math

Tax Return Estimator 2011 - Occupy Wall road and The Fallacy Of Their Math
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As most Americans know, there have been protests going on in major U.S. And international cities called Occupy Wall Street. They are a loose knit group, to say the least, with confused and divergent objectives. The most oftentimes occurring complaints are that corporations in general, and Wall road banks in particular, are too greedy, that 1% of the population controls too much of the nation's wealth and the wealthy 1% need to be arbitrarily punished for being in that situation.

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How is Occupy Wall road and The Fallacy Of Their Math

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We could probably do any amount of posts on the religious doctrine of soaking the rich, taxing the rich more, greedy banks, etc. However, rather than get into an endless and pointless loop of emotionally arguing with Occupy Wall road supporters, let's look at the math behind their demands and positions. I find in life that if you understand the fundamental math and the reality of that math, you can understand the world a lot more clearly, a lot less emotionally.

Let's start with some basic assumptions and basic math, mostly taken from government and other, respectable sources, (sources comprise the lawful Irs website and the U.S. Census Department):

* amount of U.S. Households - 114,000,000 households

* population of the United States - 308,745,538 agreeing to U.S. Census reports

* amount of U.S. Private revenue tax returns filed with the Irs in 2009, the most recent year data was ready - 140,494,127 returns

* amount of Private revenue tax returns filed with the Irs in 2009 showing more than ,000,000 revenue - 236,883 returns

* Total amount of revenue of those tax returns with more than ,000,000 in revenue in 2009 - 6,910,880,000

* division of 2009 Federal revenue taxes paid by top 1% of earners in the country - 40%

* foreseen, 2011 Federal government revenue - .174 Trillion

* foreseen, 2011 Federal government funds deficit - .3 Trillion

* division of 2011 Federal government revenue that comes from Private revenue taxes - 53%

* division of 2011 Federal government revenue that comes from payroll taxes - 37%

* division of 2011 Federal government revenue that comes from Private revenue taxes and payroll taxes - 71.5% (53% plus half of the 37% that is paid by individuals)

* Estimated 2010 total revenue of the nation's four largest banks - 0 billion

* Estimated national debt - Approaching Trillion

* Estimated total wealth (money, stocks, bonds, cars, real estate, etc.) of the richest 400 Americans agreeing to Forbes magazine - .4 Trillion

Let's do some basic math, mental relative to how the Occupy Wall road population think:

- division of U.S. Tax returns filed by population development more than ,000,000 a year =.17%, significantly less than 1%. This amount surprises many people, with the vast majority of population mental that there are for real must be more than about 236,000 Americans earning over ,000,000 a year. Thus, there are not a lot of American millionaire earners that could be taxed more to maintain the rest of the country.

[Side note: the total amount of Americans earning over ,000,000 is down by about a third relative to the 2007 Irs statistics, a discount in taxes that will have to be made up by other non-millionaire American tax filers. At this rate, Obama, Reid, and Pelosi should wipe out high earning Americans within four years.]

- Four of the largest banks in America (Bank Of America, Wells Fargo, Jp Morgan, Citigroup) had 2010 revenue of about 8 billion in 2010. Let's use that amount since 2011 is not yet done and their revenue is probably down year over year, given the bad economy. Occupy Wall road population think that these banks make too much money.

If we made the banks set aside 10% of their revenue a year for commonplace Americans as a follow of these demonstrations, each American would receive about 5, assuming that the bureaucracy of distributing the money did not eat up a lot of the 10%. Hardly adequate for the Occupy Wall road demonstrators to pay off their trainee loans or substantially heighten their lives.

- approximately two thirds of the those Americans earning over ,000,000 earned in the middle of .0 and .0 million in 2009. Thus, it is not like there are that many Americans earning billions of dollars that would make a substantially dent in any financial aspect of the nation's financials.

The mean revenue for these two thirds is about .4 million, hardly adequate to make everyone in the so-called 99% rich or even moderately best off. In fact, just over 8,000 American tax filers in 2009 made over million. These population rehearse just.01% of tax filers in America.

- Harry Reid wants to inflict a 5% tax on the revenue above ,000,000 of any American who earns over ,000,000. If he somehow got this inane proposal passed, it would originate about billion further revenue a year. This would reduce the tax burden of every other American taxpayer by only about 8, it would catalogue for a mere.8% of the 2011 Federal government budget, and only 2% or so of the 2011 Federal funds deficit.

In other words, the Harry Reid proposal would have basically no impact on any American or government spending excess. All it would do is remove disposable revenue from the economy, quite maybe resulting in more unemployment, less economic growth, and more government inefficiency.

- Let's get absurd and assume that the Federal government confiscated Every dollar from these 236,000 Americans who earned over a million dollars in 2009. These population earned about 7 billion, that if it was distributed to other American households, each one would receive about ,400.

Now, the Occupy Wall road population would say we are getting some serious change or justice for the so-called 99%. However, these 2009 American millionaires would be unlikely to ever work hard again if the government took All of their earnings. The taxes they would have paid in subsequent years would now have to be paid by the 99%.

If we assume that the millionaires paid about 30% of their revenue to the Federal government, the non-millionaires would have to pay about ,550 more each year to keep government revenue at the same level. Thus, beginning in the fifth year, the non-millionaires would be in a losing proposition since the they would have been past the break even point of the initial ,400 they received and would be paying ,550 extra in taxes a year, forever.

- If the Federal government confiscated the wealth of the 400 richest Americans, (cars, boats, real estate, cars, investments, etc.), they would end up with about .4 Trillion of wealth that they could use to cover about 69% of the Federal government's 2011 spending. In other words, stealing the total wealth of the richest 400 Americans could not cover even one year's worth of political class spending and waste.

It could be safely assumed that these 400 Americans would never go to the exertion to earn a lot of money again, forcing the remaining U.S. Taxpayers to make up the divergence in every succeeding year in Federal government taxes that these 400 Americans would have paid.

- This .4 Trillion of confiscated wealth would cover only about 16% of the country's current national debt. The remaining national debt would have to be paid off by the rest of America, most of whom earn far less than ,000,000 a year. Thus, "eat the rich," the despicable catchword the Occupy Wall road population often use, would have a very short term desired follow but the long term follow would place a necessary and ongoing burden on the non-millionaire taxpayers relative to the national debt.

- agreeing to a Washington Post narrative that was summarized in The Week magazine in the October 21, 2011 issue, the mean household wealth of the top 1% of households in America was million in 2009. If we confiscated all of this wealth and redistributed to the so-called 99%, each household would receive about 1,000. Wow, now we are talking about true socialism or even communism, power to the people.

However, now matter how keen this windfall appears, it would have devastating long term consequences to most households and our nation. It is probably a safe assumption that the 1% of American households who had their whole wealth stolen and redistributed would never work hard again, given the threat of confiscation. Thus, the so-called 99% would have to pay more in every year revenue and payroll taxes to make up for what the 1% pay each year.

This incremental every year cost for each of the households in the 99% would be about ,800 to cover what the Federal government spends each year. Thus, unless government spending was reduced, in sixteen years the 99% would get to their break even point and beginning in year seventeen and going on forever, the 99% households would be paying ,800 incremental a year, an ongoing penalty for killing off the vile 1%.

You get the idea. The math shows that even in the highly unlikely scenarios where the government confiscates the whole wealth of certain Americans, the impact, both short term and long term, on the rest of America finally becomes negative. The math also shows that confiscating 10% of big bank revenue has a negligible follow on the 99%. Whatever less than full confiscation is even less effective in changing the lives of the Occupy Wall road crowd.

However, there is one avenue where a change in behavior would have long term certain consequences for Every American. Given the documented and reported waste and fraud in Medicare, Medicaid, collective Security, Private tax evasion, business tax evasion, forces waste, etc., it is relatively easy to recognize over 0 billion a year in government savings that could be found on an every year basis if we clean up the fraud, waste, and excesses in these government areas. If these savings were realized, these savings would be worth about ,300 a year, Every year, for each American household without raising the taxes of anyone.

Thus, the Occupy Wall road population need to be down in Washington and getting into the face of the political class, that is where hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars can be recovered Every year for the good of the country and the good of every American.

Insisting that the banks and wealthy Americans give up their wealth, even in a total confiscation scenario, just does not add up, as the above math proves. As usual, the enemy is not our fellow Americans, the enemy is the incompetent and wasteful politicians in office in D.C.

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